Investment & Non-Profit Perspectives

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What Does It Mean When the FED Cuts Interest Rates?

Inflation in US
Inflation, consumer prices for the United States

𝙒𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙁𝙚𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙍𝙚𝙨𝙚𝙧𝙫𝙚 (𝙁𝙚𝙙) 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙘𝙪𝙩 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨, 𝙞𝙩 𝙤𝙛𝙩𝙚𝙣 𝙨𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙨 𝙖 𝙡𝙤𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙚𝙭𝙘𝙞𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙪𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙣 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨. 𝘽𝙪𝙩 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙚𝙭𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙡𝙮 𝙙𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙢𝙤𝙫𝙚 𝙨𝙞𝙜𝙣𝙞𝙛𝙮, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙞𝙩𝙨 𝙥𝙤𝙩𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙞𝙢𝙥𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨?


𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗖𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗘𝗻𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁

One of the primary reasons the Fed might change interest rates is to respond to inflationary pressures. After a bout of inflation, when prices have risen substantially over a period, a rate cut could indicate that inflation has begun to slow down. However, the context in which the Fed makes such a decision is critical to understanding its true impact. Interest rates play a vital role in the economy by influencing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Lower interest rates make it cheaper to borrow money, which can lead to more spending and investment. In a healthy economy, this can spur growth. But if the economy is already showing signs of slowing, a rate cut might be a way to prevent it from falling into a recession.

 

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗰𝘁: 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗮 𝗥𝗲-𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻?

The big question with any rate cut is whether it will provide just enough of a boost to keep the economy growing or if it might be a signal of more significant troubles ahead. If the economy is already on a downward trend, a rate cut might not be enough to turn things around and could foreshadow a recession. On the other hand, if the cut is just the right nudge, it could help reignite growth and set the stage for a period of economic expansion.

The real challenge is that it’s nearly impossible to time the market or predict how the economy will react. Rate cuts can create short-term market movements, but the long-term effects depend on a complex interplay of factors like consumer behavior, business investment, and global economic trends.

 

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴-𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗰𝗵: 𝗙𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

For investors, trying to “time” these events can be risky. Instead, focusing on owning high-quality businesses at reasonable valuations can be a more effective strategy. These assets often have strong balance sheets, sustainable business models, and the potential for long-term growth. By investing in such businesses, you can compound wealth over the long run, capturing the upside of market gains while protecting yourself on the downside during periods of economic uncertainty.

In essence, while interest rate cuts can provide a temporary boost to markets and economies, the key to building lasting wealth lies in a disciplined, long-term approach—one that emphasizes quality and attractive valuations, regardless of short-term fluctuations.

 Navigating the Next Decade: Investment Strategies For Current Market Realities

OECD Inflation outlook
GDP Growth

The first quarter of 2024 mirrored the trends seen in 2023, with a notable upswing in the US stock market and a corresponding decline in inflation concerns. However, despite the recent market rally amid decreasing inflation, lingering macroeconomic uncertainties continue to challenge equities. Amidst the possibility of intermittent inflation risks, it’s crucial to adopt a cautious yet proactive investment approach, as inflationary environments can lead to concurrent losses in both stocks and bonds, as observed in 2022.

In navigating these dynamics, a prudent investment strategy must prioritize delivering positive long-term returns while ensuring resilience during market downturns to protect portfolios from erosion. One option involves focusing on inflation-protected assets and stocks of companies with robust pricing power, capable of weathering economic fluctuations. Furthermore, alongside inflationary worries, the rapid expansion of US markets has heightened their prominence globally, reducing the diversification potential of global equity indices. 

Considering the US’s dominance in the MSCI All Country World Index and the concentration of US large-cap stocks reaching a peak in Q1 2024, it’s essential to evaluate the dispersion (valuation, capitalization, growth and so on) between geographies when constructing a diversified portfolio. Additionally, incorporating the expected inflation of major global geographies into investment strategies can provide valuable insights for crafting a resilient portfolio. Overall, successful investment planning for the next decade necessitates a diversified approach. Regular monitoring and adjustment based on prevailing economic conditions are vital for ensuring long-term investment success and resilience in the face of market uncertainties.

How much to “reserve”?

 

The work carried out by non-profits at both grassroots and higher levels holds great importance in shaping our changing world. We are deeply honored to support these organizations in their growth and assist in establishing a strong financial foundation. In this issue, we delve into a critical aspect of non-profit management: “Charting a course through the financial seas“.

 

As reported by urban.org, the United States is home to approximately 1.8 million non-profit organizations, encompassing public charities, private foundations, and various other entities. Of these, 501(c)(3) non-profits constitute approximately 75% of the sector and account for an estimated expenditure of around $1.94 trillion.

 

Data from urban.org indicates significant impacts on nonprofits in 2020, from the COVID-19 pandemic, with about 40% reporting decreased total revenue and an average reduction of 31% in revenue and 7% in paid staff.Read more…

 

 

Can non-profits self- manage investments, and when should they seek advisors?

 

 

Non-profit organizations often enlist the services of external advisors when decision making requirements surpass their in-house expertise. Two key facets warrant careful consideration. Advisors often offer insightful perspectives and also craft robust strategies aimed at safeguarding the organization’s long-term financial stability Next is mission alignment. Advisors can help harmonize investment strategies with the organization’s overarching values. Read More …

 

 

Can a non-profits “Theory of Change” map to investments?

 

 

The “theory of change” is a critical framework that non-profit organizations use to articulate their long-term goals, define their strategies, and measure their impact. It provides a structured roadmap for how an organization intends to create meaningful and sustainable change in the world. Is it essential to align this theory of change with investments that the organization makes? Read More …

 

The Allure of “Privates”

 

In the evolving world of investments, private strategies have garnered significant attention, attracting investors of all sizes with their promise of exclusivity and potential returns. At the heart of this landscape stands the Yale Model, celebrated for their leadership in alternatives and superior track record. Could smaller investment funds benefit from investing in private markets? Read more…